Landslide displacement forecasting using deep learning and monitoring data across selected sites
Por:
Nava L., Carraro E., Reyes-Carmona C., Puliero S., Bhuyan K., Rosi A., Monserrat O., Floris M., Meena S.R., Galve J.P., Catani F.
Publicada:
1 ene 2023
Ahead of Print:
1 jun 2023
Categoría:
Geotechnical engineering and engineering geology
Resumen:
Accurate early warning systems for landslides are a reliable risk-reduction strategy that may significantly reduce fatalities and economic losses. Several machine learning methods have been examined for this purpose, underlying deep learning (DL) models’ remarkable prediction capabilities. The long short-term memory (LSTM) and gated recurrent unit (GRU) algorithms are the sole DL model studied in the extant comparisons. However, several other DL algorithms are suitable for time series forecasting tasks. In this paper, we assess, compare, and describe seven DL methods for forecasting future landslide displacement: multi-layer perception (MLP), LSTM, GRU, 1D convolutional neural network (1D CNN), 2xLSTM, bidirectional LSTM (bi-LSTM), and an architecture composed of 1D CNN and LSTM (Conv-LSTM). The investigation focuses on four landslides with different geographic locations, geological settings, time step dimensions, and measurement instruments. Two landslides are located in an artificial reservoir context, while the displacement of the other two is influenced just by rainfall. The results reveal that the MLP, GRU, and LSTM models can make reliable predictions in all four scenarios, while the Conv-LSTM model outperforms the others in the Baishuihe landslide, where the landslide is highly seasonal. No evident performance differences were found for landslides inside artificial reservoirs rather than outside. Furthermore, the research shows that MLP is better adapted to forecast the highest displacement peaks, while LSTM and GRU are better suited to model lower displacement peaks. We believe the findings of this research will serve as a precious aid when implementing a DL-based landslide early warning system (LEWS). © 2023, The Author(s).
Filiaciones:
Nava L.:
Univ Padua, Dept Geosci, Machine Intelligence & Slope Stabil Lab, Padua, Italy
Carraro E.:
Univ Vienna, Dept Geog & Reg Res Geomorphol Syst & Risk Res, Univ Str 7, A-1010 Vienna, Austria
Reyes-Carmona C.:
Univ Granada, Dept Geodinam, Avda Hosp S-N, Granada 18010, Spain
Puliero S.:
Univ Padua, Dept Geosci, Machine Intelligence & Slope Stabil Lab, Padua, Italy
Bhuyan K.:
Univ Padua, Dept Geosci, Machine Intelligence & Slope Stabil Lab, Padua, Italy
Rosi A.:
Univ Padua, Dept Geosci, Machine Intelligence & Slope Stabil Lab, Padua, Italy
Monserrat O.:
Ctr Tecnol Telecomunicac Catalunya CTTC, Geomatics Res Unit, Barcelona, Spain
Floris M.:
Univ Padua, Dept Geosci, Machine Intelligence & Slope Stabil Lab, Padua, Italy
Meena S.R.:
Univ Padua, Dept Geosci, Machine Intelligence & Slope Stabil Lab, Padua, Italy
Galve J.P.:
Univ Granada, Dept Geodinam, Avda Hosp S-N, Granada 18010, Spain
Catani F.:
Univ Padua, Dept Geosci, Machine Intelligence & Slope Stabil Lab, Padua, Italy
hybrid, Green Published, All Open Access; Hybrid Gold Open Access
|